How to mitigate geopolitical risk and gain competitive advantage with information intelligence

Geopolitical instability is running at levels unseen in nearly 20 years. The tensions in the Indo-Pacific, the war in Ukraine, and the conflict in Gaza are just three examples of the turbulence that is presenting substantial commercial risk to multinational enterprises (MNEs).

Recent reports show that of 40 USD1 billion+ turnover MNEs, 55% reported losses of over USD100 million directly attributable to volatile geopolitical circumstances. As a result, geopolitical risk is up 214% year-on-year as a priority concern in MNE boardrooms, with 41% regarding it as the biggest threat to their bottom line.

The energy sector is a prime example, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine bringing international relations to the fore once again.

The weaponization of Russia’s oil and gas resources and their use to blunt Western sanctions has been notable, as have the write-downs taken by energy companies forced to pull out of the country. Shell alone announced a USD3.9 billion after-tax loss following its exit from Russia.

Ultimately, the challenges that geopolitical unrest poses need to be measured and understood ahead of the curve if businesses are to remain competitive. And the key to this is data.
Businesses today have a trove of information at their disposal that can be used to generate robust geopolitical risk intelligence and decisive insights, and this sits within in-house and open-source data.

The difficulty lies in their ability to collect, process, share, and analyse this information at the speed required to remain competitive in today’s volatile geopolitical landscape. The sheer volume precludes the application of established research and analysis methods that rely on the analyst’s capacity alone, and the challenge of how to make effective use of this information is one that can only be addressed through the use of disruptive technologies such as AI.

For example, thousands of new open-source data channels are becoming available daily for intelligence teams, often in foreign languages. They do not have the budget, resources, and time to outsource documents for translation. Equally, internal intelligence reports and risk assessments are piling up and they need to collect and process this information quicky and at scale.

Teaming human intelligence with AI via advanced information extraction tools is enabling analysts to interrogate the wealth of data available to them more rapidly and to gain a fully contextualised risk picture – helping them generate improved insights, and moreover offer foresight.

The application of AI to this use-case is significantly accelerating intelligence cycles. Technologies such as Adarga’s AI-driven information intelligence software lift the cognitive burden of traditional research methods by automatically extracting, translating, summarising, and connecting information, as well as identifying themes – presenting it for human analysis 24/7 and with fully evidenced outputs. The correct and effective application of AI means it is no longer necessary for analysts to spend 80% of their time in the data collection and processing phase, and consequently have just 20% of time for analysis – AI can invert this ratio, enriching outputs and introducing efficiencies and cost savings.

In today’s uncertain world, organisations can no longer afford to take a reactive approach to goeopolitical risk management and must adopt an advanced information intelligence approach if they are to minimise adverse impacts and maximise the opportunities that such situations can present.


Adarga is looking forward to exhibiting at ASIS Europe 2024, to learn more about how our software is supercharging information analysis for enterprises, intelligence firms, government and the military visit: 

To meet with us at ASIS Europe 2024 email: [email protected]

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